盡管市場預期冷（lěng）拔鋼管價格有震蕩上升的可能，但是很大程度（dù）上難（nán）以迅猛上升。原（yuán）因是（shì），中國（guó）經濟整（zhěng）體呈（chéng）現放慢的（de）速度。中央政治局會議（yì）部署加快基建投（tóu）資，隻能是整體遏製投資增速下滑，仍難快速拉高投資增速，經濟進入新的快速增（zēng）長周期可能性不大（dà）。目前投資增速（sù）對經濟的（de）貢獻率很低，經濟主要（yào）靠消費拉動（dòng），對於短（duǎn）板領域的投（tóu）資短期可（kě）以穩定經濟增速，但（dàn）是從中長期看（kàn），還是要尋（xún）找新的（de）動力，包括加（jiā）快稅改等。
Although the market anticipates that the price of cold-drawn steel pipe may rise concussively, it is difficult to rise rapidly to a large extent. The reason is that China's economy as a whole is slowing down. Speeding up capital investment at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee can only curb the decline of investment growth as a whole, but it is still difficult to rapidly increase investment growth. It is unlikely that the economy will enter a new rapid growth cycle. At present, the contribution rate of investment growth to the economy is very low. The economy is mainly driven by consumption. The short-term investment in the short-board area can stabilize the economic growth, but in the medium and long term, we still need to find new impetus, including accelerating tax reform.
2008年中國4萬億投資啟動後，鋼鐵的需（xū）求盡管整體在上升（shēng），但是價格很快下降，此後經過供給側結構性改革去除數億噸產能後，冷拔鋼管價格才開始迅速（sù）回升。
After the start of China's 4 trillion yuan investment in 2008, although the overall demand for steel has risen, the price of steel has fallen rapidly. After removing hundreds of millions of tons of capacity through the structural reform on the supply side, the price of cold-drawn steel pipe began to rise rapidly.
根據（jù）國家發改委的安排（pái），鋼鐵業目前和煤炭一樣，已經從過去的去產能進入到（dào）了結構（gòu）性去產能的新階段，也就是說要培育優質產能，充分利用產能置換、指標交易等市場化手段，加快形成一批工藝先進、生產效率高、資源利用效率高、安全保（bǎo）障能力強、環境保護（hù）水平高、單位產品能耗低的優質產能，把結構（gòu）調整（zhěng）過來。
According to the arrangement of the National Development and Reform Commission, the iron and steel industry, like coal, has entered a new stage of structural capacity removal from the past. That is to say, it is necessary to cultivate high-quality capacity, make full use of market-oriented means such as capacity replacement and index trading, and accelerate the formation of a batch of advanced technology, high production efficiency and resource utilization. High efficiency, strong security capability, high level of environmental protection, low energy consumption per unit product of high-quality production capacity, to adjust the structure.
同時（shí）鼓（gǔ）勵有條件企業（yè）實施（shī）跨地區、跨所有製兼並重組，提（tí）升整合優質產能，把冷拔鋼（gāng）管行業高質量發展提高到一個新（xīn）水平。
At the same time, conditional enterprises are encouraged to carry out cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations, enhance and integrate high-quality production capacity, and raise the high-quality development of cold-drawn steel pipe industry to a new level.
按此看，接下來各大鋼鐵公（gōng）司產量可能會加快，這使得市場價格難以快速（sù）上（shàng）升。未來一（yī）段時間，黑色產業鏈上的現貨冷拔鋼管價格依然會延續‘以穩為主、震蕩上漲’的格局。
From this point of view, the next major steel companies may speed up production, which makes it difficult for market prices to rise rapidly. In the future, spot cold-drawn steel pipe prices in the black industry chain will continue the pattern of "stability-oriented, concussive rise".
要注意的是（shì），國家發（fā）改委強（qiáng）調加快基建投資，但是仍要求（qiú）控製負債水（shuǐ）平。比如目前基建加快等隻是限於補（bǔ）短板領（lǐng）域，各地主城區達不到300萬人口要求的城市，仍不能修建地鐵。
It should be noted that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes accelerating capital investment, but still requires controlling the debt level. For example, at present, the acceleration of infrastructure construction is only limited to the field of mending boards. Cities in the main urban areas of different regions can not meet the requirements of 3 million people, and metro construction is still impossible.
下一步要（yào）把（bǎ）補短板作為深化供給側結構性改革的重點任務，加強基礎設施領域補短板的力（lì）度，這不是說（shuō）一定要非常大的規模擴大基礎設施建設，而是切切實實補短板。
The next step is to take the shortage board as the key task of deepening the structural reform of the supply side, and strengthen the strength of the shortage board in the field of infrastructure. This does not mean that we must expand the infrastructure construction on a very large scale, but actually make up for the shortage board.
下半年環保限產繼續加碼使得鋼鐵生產增量有限（xiàn）；從下遊需求來看，基建投資雖有所承壓但仍有望平穩（wěn）增長，房地產新開工和施工麵積增速韌性仍在，製造業也有望成為（wéi）鋼鐵（tiě）需求的重要增長方向。加上今年春季需求釋放較（jiào）晚，建築項目基本在二（èr）季度開工（gōng），為避免取（qǔ）暖季環保限產影響（xiǎng），在天（tiān）氣漸好（hǎo）的三季度施工強度將有所提升，帶動冷拔鋼管需求集中釋放。
In the second half of the year, the increase of iron and steel production is limited because of the restriction of environmental protection and production. From the downstream demand point of view, although the investment in infrastructure is under pressure, it is expected to grow steadily. The growth of new real estate construction and construction area is still fast and tough, and the manufacturing industry is expected to become an important growth direction of iron and steel demand. With the late release of demand in spring this year, construction projects started in the second quarter. In order to avoid the impact of environmental protection and production restriction in the heating season, construction intensity will be increased in the third quarter when the weather is getting better, which will lead to the centralized release of cold-drawn steel pipe demand.
預計（jì），2018年下半年國內冷（lěng）拔鋼管市場將呈現高位震蕩、謹慎樂觀態勢，全年（nián）冷拔鋼管價格重心進一步上移，整體漲幅在（zài）10%左（zuǒ）右。
It is expected that in the second half of 2018, the domestic cold-drawn steel pipe market will show a high volatility and cautious optimism. The price center of the cold-drawn steel pipe will further move up, with an overall increase of about 10%.
