1月份及2月（yuè）“春節”前後（hòu），國內市場是鋼材需求淡季方管產量（liàng）也有所減少。但受巴西淡水（shuǐ）河穀發生潰壩事件影響，鐵（tiě）礦（kuàng）石價格出（chū）現大幅（fú）上（shàng）升（shēng）走勢。從總體情況看，潰壩（bà）事件形成的影響有限，鐵礦石供需形勢並未發生明顯變化，鐵礦（kuàng）石價（jià）格難以持續大幅上漲。
Before and after the Spring Festival in January and February, the domestic market is in the off-season of steel demand, and steel production has also decreased. However, due to the dam-break in Brazil's Vale, iron ore prices showed a sharp upward trend. Overall, the impact of dam-break events is limited, the situation of iron ore supply and demand has not changed significantly, and the price of iron ore is difficult to continue to rise substantially. 一、中國鐵礦石價格指數大幅上升
1. China's iron ore price index has risen sharply
據鋼鐵協會監測，1月末，中國鐵礦石價格指數（CIOPI）為294.76點，環比上升41.37點（diǎn），升幅為16.33%。其中：國產鐵礦石價（jià）格指數為243.47點，環比上升4.53點，升幅為1.90%；進口（kǒu）鐵礦石價格指數為302.52點，環比上（shàng）升46.95點，升幅為18.37%。
According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of January, the China Iron ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 294.76 points, up 41.37 points, or 16.33 percent. Among them: the domestic iron ore price index is 243.47 points, rising 4.53 points annually, an increase of 1.90%; the imported iron ore price index is 302.52 points, an increase of 46.95 points annually, an increase of 18.37%.
從全（quán）月平均水平看，中國鐵礦石價格指數（shù）（CIOPI）總體高（gāo）於上月。1月份，CIOPI綜合指數平均值為268.17點，較上月上升（shēng）19.44點，升幅為7.82%。其中：國產鐵礦石價格指數平均值為241.54點，比上月上升2.66點，升（shēng）幅為1.11%；進（jìn）口（kǒu）鐵礦石價格指數（shù）平均值為272.19點，環比上升21.97點，升幅為8.78%。
From the monthly average, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) is generally higher than last month. In January, the average CIOPI composite index was 268.17 points, up 19.44 points, or 7.82%, compared with the previous month. Among them: the average price index of domestic iron ore is 241.54 points, up 2.66 points from last month, up 1.11%; the average price index of imported iron ore is 272.19 points, up 21.97 points annually, up 8.78%.
二、國產鐵精礦價格相對平穩，進口粉礦價格（gé）大幅上升
2. Domestic iron concentrate prices are relatively stable, while imported fine ore prices have risen sharply.
1月末，CIOPI國產鐵精（jīng）礦含稅價格為626.49元/噸，環比上升11.65元/噸，升幅為1.90%；CIOPI進口粉礦到岸價格（gé）為81.71美（měi）元/噸，環比上升（shēng）12.68美元/噸，升幅為18.37%，比國產礦價格升幅高16.47個百（bǎi）分點。
At the end of January, CIOPI domestic iron concentrate tax price was 626.49 yuan/ton, rising 11.65 yuan/ton annually, up 1.90%; CIOPI imported fine ore landed price was 81.71 dollars/ton, up 12.68 dollars/ton annually, up 18.37%, 16.47 percentage points higher than domestic ore price.
需要（yào）關注（zhù）的是，1月25日巴西淡水河穀位於米內斯吉拉斯州的一處尾礦區發生潰壩事件後，進口礦價格出現快速上揚走勢（shì）。從全月平均水平看，國產（chǎn）鐵精礦平均含稅價格為（wéi）621.52元/噸（dūn），比上月上升6.85元/噸（dūn），升幅為1.11%。其中：1月2日（rì）至（zhì）1月末（mò），由616.17元/噸波動上行至626.49元/噸。
It should be noted that import prices of Brazilian Vale have risen rapidly after a dam-break in a tailings mine in Mines Gerais on January 25. From the monthly average, the average tax-bearing price of domestic iron concentrate is 621.52 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan/ton from last month, an increase of 1.11%. Among them, from January 2 to the end of January, the fluctuation of 616.17 yuan/ton went up to 626.49 yuan/ton.
進口粉礦平均到岸（àn）價格（gé）為73.52美元/噸，比上（shàng）月上升5.94美元/噸（dūn），升幅為8.78%。其中：1月2日至1月11日（rì），由69.23美元/噸震蕩運行至71.93美元/噸，1月11日至1月（yuè）末，由71.93美元/噸上行（háng）至81.71美元（yuán）/噸。春節後價格繼續上漲，到2月12日達到87.92美元/噸，比1月末（mò）上漲7.6%。
The average CIF price of imported fine ore is 73.52 US dollars per ton, up 5.94 US dollars per ton, or 8.78% over the previous month. From Jan. 2 to Jan. 11, the oscillation run from $69.23 per ton to $71.93 per ton, and from Jan. 11 to the end of Jan. 11, the oscillation run from $71.93 per ton to $81.71 per ton. Prices continued to rise after the Spring Festival, reaching $87.92 per ton on February 12, up 7.6 per cent from the end of January.
三、後期鐵礦石價格（gé）走勢分析
III. Analysis of Iron ore Price Trend in Later Period
1、巴西淡水（shuǐ）河穀潰壩事件對供應量影響有限（xiàn），市（shì）場（chǎng）不宜過（guò）度解讀
1. Brazilian Vale Dam Break has limited impact on supply, and the market should not be over-interpreted.
2018年中國共進口鐵礦石10.64億噸，比（bǐ）上（shàng）年減少1022萬噸，其中從（cóng）巴西進口鐵礦石2.05億（yì）噸，占中國進口總量20%左右（yòu），比上年下降1300萬噸左右。據多（duō）個國際機構預計，潰壩事件影響淡水河穀鐵礦石年產量4000-6000萬噸，僅占中國年進口量的5%左（zuǒ）右。巴西淡水河穀減少的產量以及高矽礦等品種可被其他國家和地區進口（kǒu）礦彌補。2019年我國鋼鐵行業需要進一步推進供給側結構性改革，繼續鞏固去（qù）產能成果，鋼鐵產量（liàng）繼續大幅增長可能性較低（dī），同時隨著廢鋼用量增加，對鐵礦石需求進一步減（jiǎn）少，後（hòu）期鐵礦石價格也難以（yǐ）大幅上漲。
In 2018, China imported 1.064 billion tons of iron ore, a decrease of 10.22 million tons over the previous year, of which 205 million tons were imported from Brazil, accounting for about 20% of China's total imports, a decrease of 13 million tons over the previous year. According to several international agencies, the dam-break event affects the annual output of iron ore in Valley from 40 to 60 million tons, accounting for only about 5% of China's annual imports. The reduced output of Brazil's Valley and varieties of high-silicon minerals can be compensated by imported minerals from other countries and regions. In 2019, China's iron and steel industry needs to further promote the structural reform of supply side, continue to consolidate the results of capacity removal, and the possibility of large-scale growth of iron and steel output is low. At the same time, with the increase of scrap steel consumption, the demand for iron ore is further reduced, and iron ore prices are difficult to rise substantially in the later period.
2、鐵礦（kuàng）石需（xū）求強度下降，供大於求態勢仍未有改變
2. Demand intensity of iron ore has declined and the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged.
據鋼（gāng）鐵協會旬報統計，1月（yuè）中上（shàng）旬（xún），會員鋼鐵企業平均日產粗鋼181.66萬噸，估（gū）算全國日產粗（cū）鋼239.48萬噸，比去年12月（yuè）份（fèn）下降2.47%；估算全國日產生鐵199.38萬噸，比12月份下降2.20%。鋼鐵產量環（huán）比下降，鐵礦石需求強度繼續呈下降趨勢；1月末，全國進口鐵礦石港口庫存量為（wéi）1.40億噸，環比下降182萬噸，降幅為1.29%，總體仍處於較高水平；總（zǒng）體來看，鐵（tiě）礦石（shí）市場供大於求態勢仍未（wèi）有（yǒu）大的改觀。
According to the statistics of the Tenth Annual Report of the Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of members'iron and steel enterprises was 181.66 million tons in mid-early January, which was estimated to be 239.48 million tons of crude steel in the whole country, down 2.47% from last December, and the daily output of iron in the whole country was estimated to be 199.38 million tons, down 2.20% from December. At the end of January, the stock of imported iron ore ports decreased by 1.22 million tons, a decline of 1.29%. Overall, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the iron ore market has not been greatly improved.
3、鋼材價格（gé）窄幅波動，鐵礦石價格難以持續上漲
3. Steel prices fluctuate narrowly and iron ore prices are difficult to keep rising
據鋼鐵（tiě）協會監測，2月1日，中國鋼材價格指數（CSPI）為106.77點，比去年12月（yuè）末下降0.35點，降幅為0.33%。從今年以來（lái）各周情況看，鋼材價（jià）格呈窄幅波動走勢。據國家統計局數據，12月中國製造業采購經理（PMI）為49.5%，比（bǐ）上月上升0.1個百分點，連續兩月低於臨界點，顯示國民經濟下（xià）行壓力較大，下遊行業用鋼需求難以持續增長，目前仍處（chù）於鋼材消費淡季，鋼材價格（gé）仍將以小幅波動為主。後期鐵礦（kuàng）石（shí）價格難以持續上漲，將呈理性回歸走勢。
The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 106.77 points on February 1, down 0.35 points, or 0.33%, from the end of December last year, according to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association. From this year's weekly situation, steel prices show a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing manager of China's manufacturing industry (PMI) in December was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, which was lower than the critical point for two consecutive months. This shows that the downward pressure of the national economy is greater and the demand for steel for downstream industries is difficult to sustain growth. At present, it is still in the off-season of steel consumption, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly. Later iron ore prices are difficult to continue to rise, will be a rational return trend.
